Data-Driven Strategic Warnings: The Case of Yemeni ISPs
In 2007, a flurry of denial of service attacks targeted Estonian government websites as well as commercial sites, including banks. Many of these Russian-backed attacks were hosted on servers located in Russia. The following year, numerous high profile Georgian government and commercial sites were forced offline, redirected to servers in Moscow. Eventually, the Georgian government transferred key sites, such as the president’s site, to US servers. These examples illustrate the potential vulnerability of hosting sites on servers in adversarial countries. Both Estonia and Georgia are highly dependent on the Internet, with Estonia conducting virtually everything online from voting to finance. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Yemen, with twenty Internet users per 100 people. Would the same kind of vulnerability experienced by Georgian sites be a concern for a country with minimal Internet penetration?
For low and middle-income countries, traditional indicators of instability and dependencies – such as conflict measures or foreign aid, respectively – tend to drive risk assessments. When modern technologies are taken into account, most of this work focuses on the role of social media, as the majority of research on the Arab Spring and now ISIS reflects. While these technologies are important to include, they do not reflect the full spectrum of digitally focused insights that can be garnered for geopolitical analyses. More specifically, the hosting and/or transfer of strategic servers hosted in adversarial (or allied) sovereign territory could provide an oft-overlooked signal of a country’s intent. Eliminating this risk could be a subtle, but insightful, change that may warrant additional attention. The changing digital landscape could provide great value and potentially strategic warning of an altering geo-political landscape.
The Public Telecommunication Corporation (PTC) is the operator of Yemen’s major Internet service providers, Yemennet and TeleYemen. Using Endgame’s proprietary data, it is possible to analyze the changing digital landscape of all Internet-facing devices, including the digital footprint of the ISPs. The geo-enrichment and organizational information, when explored temporally, may shed light both on transitioning allegiances, as well as on who controls access to key digital instruments of power during conflict. These are state-affiliated ISPs, and in turn can be used for censorship and propaganda by those who control them, as exemplified in Eastern Europe. In fact, news broke on 26 March that Yemennet is blocking access to numerous websites opposed to Houthi groups. Houthis control the capital and have expanded their reach, leading to the recent air strikes by Saudi Arabia and Gulf Cooperation Council allies.
Looking at data from early 2011 to the present, it is apparent that the PTC and Yemennet particularly had a footprint mainly in Yemen, but also in Saudi Arabia as well.
PTC Cumulative Host Application Footprint 2011-2015
Yemennet Cumulative Host Application footprint 2011-2015
However, the larger temporal horizon masks changes that occurred during these years. The maps below illustrate data over the last year, highlighting that the digital footprint has moved to entirely within Sana.
PTC footprint 2014-15
Yemennet Footprint March 2014-2015
An overview of the time series data shows a dramatic termination of a presence in Saudi Arabia during the summer of 2013.
To ensure this breakpoint was not simply an elimination of the IP blocks located in Riyad and Jeddah, but rather a move to Sana, I explored numerous IP addresses independently to assess the change. In each case, the actual hosting of the IP address transferred from Saudi Arabia to Yemen. Interestingly, just prior to the breakpoint in the data, an (allegedly) Iranian shipment of Chinese missiles was located off the coast of Yemen, which were intended at the time for Houthi rebels in the northwestern part of the country. Moreover, the breakpoint also occurs within the same timeframe of the termination of Saudi Arabia’s aid to Yemen, which had been the bedrock of the relationship for decades. In fact, the elimination of this aid was described as giving “breathing space for it (Yemen) to become independent of its ‘big brother’ next door.” It is plausible that this transfer of domain host locations is similarly part of the larger desire for “breathing space”, or elimination of dependencies on its powerful neighbor.
Does this transfer of the main Yemeni ISPs away from Saudi Arabia to entirely within Yemen’s borders indicate a strategic change? As is the case with all strategic warnings, they should be validated with additional research. Nevertheless, data-driven strategic warnings are few and far between in the realm of international relations. Even the smallest proactive insight into potential changes in the geo-political landscape could help highlight and focus attention to areas previously overlooked. Despite the presence of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Yemen has not garnered much attention outside of the counter-terrorism domain. But as we’re seeing now, Yemen could very well be the battleground for a proxy conflict between the dominant actors in the Middle East. Perhaps any exploration of Yemen’s digital landscape during 2013 could have prompted a more holistic and proactive analysis into the changing regional dynamics. The digital landscape of key organizations may offer a range of insights that just may provide enough strategic insight to help enable proactive research into regions that are on the verge of major tectonic geopolitical shifts. With the onset of the cyber domain as a major battleground for power politics, digital data must be integrated not only into tactical analyses, but also can help inform strategic warning as well.